Preview: Cincinnati at Iowa State

Cincinnati (15-9, 5-8 Big 12) will face one of the toughest opponents on their schedule on Saturday when they travel to Ames (IA) for a mid-afternoon match up against the Iowa State Cyclones (19-5, 9-4 Big 12).

 

"One of the best teams in the country," Cincinnati head coach Wes Miller said Thursday at his media availability. "It's just a great opportunity. It's what's great about this league. Throughout the course of a conference season there's so many awesome opportunities to compete."

 

Winning in Ames has not been an easy task. 

 

Prior to their loss to Kansas State on February 1st, the Cyclones had won 29 straight inside Hilton Coliseum. 

 

"They've lost one game in Ames in the last two years, so one game in a two-year period in their building, you know, that tells you how good and think about all the people that have come in there, so that tells you how good they are. But you know, I think it's just a great opportunity for our team to go play against one of the best teams in the country and in one of the best environments in the country."

 

TJ Otzelberger's team enters Saturday ranked 7th in both the Kenpom and NCAA Net ratings. A big reason for that has been their ability to be elite at both ends of the court. The Cyclones rank 19th in offensive adjusted efficiency and are 7th in defensive adjusted efficiency.

 

The Cyclones have been really good at getting in transition and scoring at a quick pace, while also forcing opponents to grind possessions out in the half court.

 

 

"Generally that means you got a hell of a defense," Miller said. "I don't think TJ is trying to play that slow defensively. I think his defense is that good, that people really struggle to generate a shot early in the shot clock, in the middle of the shot clock, and then obviously he's got those guards that are really good in transition. They generate a lot of turnovers."

 

"It generally just speaks to how damn good your defense is and that you're letting your guys play with freedom and pace, which is what it looks like to me when I watch the tape."

 

Iowa State by the numbers:

• The Cyclones rank 57th in both offensive and defensive effective field goal percentage.
• ISU is 19th in defensive turnover percentage (21.8) and 68th in offensive turnover percentage.
• ISU ranks 68th in offensive rebounding percentage (33.7) and allow opponents to grab 28% of their misses, which ranks 83rd.
• ISU ranks 149th in 3p percentage (34.1).
• The Cyclones have been elite inside the arc, ranking 40th in 2p percentage (55.7), while allowing opponents to make just 46.5% of their shots inside the arc. That mark ranks 31st.
• Defensive steal %- 13.3 (15th)
• Offensive Non-steal turnover %- 6.0 (21st)
  

 

Players to know:

 

6'1" Jr G Tamin Lipsey (10.4 pts, 2.5 rbs, 2.9 ast, 46.2 FG%, 30.9 3P%)

 

Lipsey is widely regarded as one of the best defensive guards in the country. A preseason All-Big 12 selection, Lipsey leads the team in steals and is close to becoming the school's all-time steals leader.

 

Lipsey has seen his 3-point percentage take a dip this season from 38% to 31%, but is a capable shooter, as seen in his 6-of-12 performance from deep in the two losses to Arizona and Kansas State two weeks ago.

 

Wes Miller on Lipsey defensively:

 

"He's really good on the ball, first off. He's a good on the ball defender. He's got very very good defensive instincts and makes a ton of plays on the ball whether there's lots of steals or deflections and kind of has that feel for where to be on the court. Same thing offensively. It's basketball feel and he's got that. It makes him a really, really good defender."

 

6'4" Sr G Keshon Gilbert (14.7 pts, 4.5 ast, 3.7 reb, 50.4 FG%, 21.3 3P%)

 

Gilbert was named to the Jerry West Award Top 10 List and was also named to the Wooden Award Late Season Top 20 Watch List. Gilbert has shown the ability to be a good defender and rebounder from his position, and is also able to make plays for himself while scoring off the dribble. 

 

The St. Louis native has been held to single digits just five times this season, with his "worst" game being a seven-point showing against Kansas on January 15th. He currently leads the team in assists but has been turnover prone at times, averaging 3.0 per game. 

 

6'4" Sr G Curtis Jones (17.4 pts, 4.6 rbs, 2.3 ast, 43.8 FG%, 37.6 3P%)

 

Was also named to the Jerry West Award Top 10 List and Wooden Award Late Season Top 20 Watch List. Scored a season high 33 points on January 25th in a win over Arizona State and has seven games this season with 20 or more points. 

Jones is an interesting story this season. From a stats and analytics standpoint, he has been the Cyclones best player this season but has done it while coming off the bench, starting just seven games while sophomore Milan Momcilovic was out with an injury.

 

Wes Miller on Curtis Jones:

 

"He shoots it. He really, really shoots it. Shoots it deep, shoots it off the bounce, and then he's added a little bit more to his game. I think it's fascinating that (he's) either highest efficiency player statistically, analytically, right. Leading scorer and he's coming off the bench. I think that's a good lesson for youngsters out there that you know, it doesn't really matter whether you start or come off the bench or not. That's there, on paper, their best offensive player. But they have a number of great offensive players. It's not my job to figure out who's the best, we got to figure out how to guard all of them."

6'8" Sophomore F Milan Momcilovic (10.1 pts, 3.3 reb, 45.5 FG%, 43.9 3P%)

 

Momcilovic was an All-Big 12 Freshman Team selection last season and was also named to the All-Big 12 Tournament team during the Cyclones run to the Big 12 Tournament championship last season. The sophomore leads the team in 3-point shooting and is a crucial piece to the success of the team. The Cyclones lost three-straight during his seven game absence during January.

 

At 6'8", Momcilovic is a true stretch forward that is able to put pressure on a defense with his ability to score from all three levels.

 

Wes Miller on Momcilovic impact:

 

"The obvious is the way he shoots the basketball, right. He gives them a guy that stretches the floor and creates a lot of space and you know, those three guards they have are terrific when you put him out there. There's even more space for those guys to operate and do the things that they do, but it's not just how well he shoots it, he has such a high shooting pocket, like the ball's over top of his head. He's got great size as it is and then he can shoot it off the bounce and he can put his body on you. The shooting ability is important, but the way he gets it off and the different ways he can shoot it and then like all young players a year ago, he's taken another step and does a lot more on the floor. He makes them a much different team, for sure. 

6'9" Jr F Josh Jefferson (12.8 pts, 8.0 reb, 2.8 ast, 51.7 FG%, 28.6 3P%)

 

A transfer from St Mary's, Jefferson leads the team in rebounding, has nine double-doubles and has earned five Big 12 Newcomer of the Week awards. The versatile big man scored 30 points against UCF on January 21st and scored in double figures in 19 of the last 20 games for the Cyclones after getting off to a somewhat slow start during the first five games of the season. 

 

Jefferson has good bust and athleticism around the rim and is able to make plays both with his scoring and passing ability out of the post. 

 

 

6'11" Sr C Dishon Jackson (9.0 Pts, 5.1 Reb, 57.3 FG%)

 

Jackson scored in double figures in eight of his first 11 games during the non-conference portion of the schedule, but has struggled to find the same consistency during conference play, averaging just over 4 points less per game.

 

Jackson spent his first three seasons at Washington State, transferred to Charlotte for his senior season, then arrived in Ames this past off-season. At 6'11, Jackson is a decent athlete but not a consistent shot blocker. 

 

Wes Miller Previews Iowa State:

 

 

Final Thoughts:

 

A win Saturday would go a long way in the Bearcats' NCAA Tournament hopes. Take away the 19-point loss to Kansas State without Momcilovic and ISU has won by an average margin of victory of 22.8 points per game at home during Big 12 play. That margin includes home wins over Baylor, Kansas, TCU, UCF, and Utah. Simply put, TJ Otzelberger's team has been elite at home this season.

 

Cincinnati is averaging 87.3 ppg (55.4 FG%) over the last three games after 59.6 (39.0%) over the prior 10 to start league play. It's the first the Bearcats have scored 84-plus points in three-straight conference games since 2004.

 

The Bearcats have shot 50% or better from deep in their last two games and will need a similar effort against the Cyclones to secure their highest ranked win since defeating No. 2 Syracuse during the 2012 Big East Tournament. 

 

How well the trio of Jizzle James, Day Day Thomas, and Simas Lukosius play will go a long way in determining the outcome for UC. The Bearcats were turned over 25 times last season against ISU in Cincinnati. Taking care of the ball against ISU's pressure will be priority No. 1. 

 

At the end of the day, this is a game the Bearcats can go into free and loose. Everyone expects them to lose, and some probably think it will be a blow out. Continue to play with confidence and the Bearcats will have a chance.